USD/JPY: Weekly Technical Analysis for March 17-21, 2014

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The greenback showed weakness against the Japanese Yen in the past trading week’s session after a massive decline was seen. Weekly bias in the USD/JPY remains on the downside as there’s a fresh cross of 21 and 55 EMA’s to the downside.  MACD, Stochastic and RSI oscillators are all also signaling more decline of the pair should be expected on the 4hours time-frame.


The pair seems to have found resistance at 103.742 last week’s high which resulted from the economic reports of the U.S Employment and Unemployment rates. A break of 101.189 support will see further decline to 100.734 and a clear break of 100.734 support would see more supply to 100.133(61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 96.931 to 105.425).


However i suggest if we get a reversal candle (Pin bar or engulfing pattern) formation of price around the supply/support zones 101.189/100.734, demand for the pair to 101.790 could be seen which could dampen the current bearish run. A break of 101.790 resistance could see further rise to 102.786.


Key economic indicators to watch out for in the coming week are the Core CPI m/m, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference, Existing Home Sales and Federal Funds Rate. We are not expecting any hike rate or cut but the Economic Projections could provide some chronic weakness or strength for the greenback.

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