USD/CHF: Trading Analysis For September 9, 2014

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Fundamental Analysis:

The U.S. dollar edged up against the Swiss franc on Monday, to trade near one-year highs after the release of disappointing Swiss retail sales data and as optimism over the U.S. economic outlook continued to support the greenback. Official data earlier showed that Swiss retail sales dropped at an annualized rate of 0.6% in July confounding expectations for an increase of 2.6%. The change in retail sales for June was revised to an annualized increase of 3.3% from a previously estimated 3.4% rise. A separate report showed that Switzerland’s consumer price inflation was flat last month, compared to expectations for a 0.1% downtick, after a 0.4% fall in July.

Meanwhile, the dollar remained supported despite a report on Friday showing that the U.S. economy added jobs at the slowest monthly rate this year in August. Other economic reports released earlier last week indicated that the U.S. recovery is still on track, fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve will wind up its asset purchase program in October and start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015.



Technical Analysis:

Intraday bias remains on the upside as 21 and 55 EMA trend indicators are crossed northward in the 1 hour, 4 hours, Daily and Weekly charts signalling the continuation of the bullish trend. SSRC, Stochastic, RSI and MACD Oscillator indicators are showing bullish momentum is still intact, so am expecting further rise to 0.93966 in the short term picture after price successfully broke 0.93342 resistance (Fridays high).


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